Are Arab states already pessimistic about the future outcome for Gaza?
Many countries are wary of the future and wonder if the deal agreed to in Egypt on October 8 can actually change the situation in Gaza.
A report in Arab News on October 15 noted that “Gaza ceasefire outlook darkens as Israel delays aid and Hamas tightens grip.”
This is one of a series of reports that appear to illustrate that regional countries are concerned that the developments in Gaza are not moving in the right direction. These media reports reflect the thinking in these countries.
The pessimism is understandable. The question is what these states hope to do about it. Many of these countries wanted the war to end. They also sent delegations to Egypt to work with the US toward ending the war. However, many of the countries continue to appear to be hedging on what may come next.
The Gulf states have a lot to offer in terms of potential support for Gaza. However, so long as they think that the plan to end the war doesn’t have teeth behind it, they may not move forward, besides paying lip service to the deal.
The challenge for the deal is that while the White House wants it to move to phase two, it will require more than talk to get it to do so. Hamas needs to return the bodies of the deceased hostages.
Some movement in the right direction
There is some movement in the right direction. Reports say that Turkey has sent a delegation to Gaza to help with search and rescue, and this can ostensibly help find the deceased hostages. In addition, Egypt is ready to transfer equipment to begin clearing rubble.
The question will be whether Hamas is able to already portray itself as the governing authority. If Hamas continues to control most of Gaza, then it will be hard for the countries involved to believe that anything will change.
It is likely that Turkey, Egypt, and some others are basically fine with working with Hamas. In fact, Ankara may prefer Hamas, which will make it even harder to dislodge the group or disarm it.
Also, as long as Israel insists that the deal be followed, it will be difficult to proceed to the subsequent stages. One incentive to move on to new stages may be the desire by Hamas and others to see the IDF withdraw more in Gaza. So far, the IDF controls what is called the Yellow Line in Gaza. This is essentially half of Gaza.
Al-Ain media in the UAE has said that “Hamas bullets control the truce.”
This clearly indicates that they also sense that unless Hamas is disarmed, it will continue its reign of terror against dissidents.
The articles at Arab News, Al-Ain, and elsewhere all portray the same challenges in Gaza. This means that many countries are wary of the future and wonder if the deal agreed to in Egypt on October 8 can actually change the situation in Gaza.