2025 hurricane season predictions: How this year compares to 2024
Meteorologists are anticipating fewer hurricanes in 2025 than 2024 but warned that strong storms could impact populated areas along the U.S. coastline.
Why It Matters
AccuWeather is one of the first meteorological agencies to issue a hurricane forecast this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) typically releases its forecast in May, and Colorado State University meteorologists release their forecast in April.
What to Know
On Wednesday, AccuWeather released its 2025 hurricane forecast.
Last year, the number of hurricanes that formed during the Atlantic hurricane season was above average. There were 18 named storms that formed during the season, with 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. A major hurricane occurs when hurricanes are classified as a Category 3 or higher.
This year, AccuWeather is predicting 13 to 18 named storms, with seven to 10 strengthening into hurricanes.
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction
The forecast anticipates three to six direct storm hits to the U.S. this year.
Texas, Louisiana, western Florida, North Carolina and Atlantic Canada are most at risk for direct impacts, the report said.
When Does Hurricane Season Start?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Pacific hurricane season begins two weeks earlier, on May 15.
2025 Hurricane Season Florida Predictions
Although AccuWeather didn't anticipate the number of storms to impact individual states with this hurricane season, meteorologists examined 12 analog years, or years with similar weather patterns as the coming season, and identified where the storms struck during those years.
When studying the analog years, four hurricanes hit Florida's western coast during years with similar weather patterns to 2025.
2025 Hurricane Season North Carolina Predictions
North Carolina is still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in Florida's Big Bend region as a Category 4 storm last September before tearing inland and causing catastrophic damage to western North Carolina, as well as parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
When meteorologists examined analog years, they found five hurricanes that hit North Carolina's eastern coast.
2025 Hurricane Season Texas Predictions
Texas is also facing a heightened risk of hurricanes this coming season. Three hurricanes hit Texas's Gulf Coast in the analog years meteorologists studied.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "We really want to stress the inland impacts. As we saw with Helene and Beryl last year, these impacts can stretch way, way inland."
DaSilva added:"This isn't a new thing, but we saw all the destruction last year well away from the coast, so people are starting to pay attention to that more. Even you if live away from the coast, you can still be severely impacted from a tropical system."
DaSilva said in the report: "Similar to last year, northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season. Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts."
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said in the forecast: "We expect fewer named storms this year compared to last year. The total number of storms is not truly what defines a hurricane season; it is the impacts to land and populated areas. It only takes one landfall to create a devastating season."
What Happens Next
More hurricane forecasts are likely to be made in the months before hurricane season officially begins on June 1. There is also the chance a named storm could develop before the season officially begins, AccuWeather warned.